Economy

Econbrowser Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

  • September Real Median Household Income Estimated
    by Menzie Chinn on October 15, 2024 at 7:01 pm

    Above Pre-Covid peak. From Motio Research: Source: Motio Research.

  • Inflation: A Discussion in Milwaukee
    by Menzie Chinn on October 15, 2024 at 3:04 pm

    A Main Street Agenda town hall meeting on inflation to be held today, Tuesday, Oct. 15, from 6 to 8 p.m. at the Clinton Rose Senior Center, 3045 N. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. Drive. Register here. American Press Institute/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel/Wisconsin Public Radio/Robert M. La Follette School of Public Affairs. Livestreamed here. Figure 1: CPI

  • Chatting about math with ChatGPT
    by James_Hamilton on October 14, 2024 at 10:23 pm

    I’m still trying to learn how to use ChatGPT to improve my productivity. One thing I’ve been experimenting with recently is to ask it to check my math. As it turns out, I’m still better at math than the algorithm. Here is a link to a recent discussion I had with ChatGPT. My entries are

  • Guest Contribution: “Social Security Reform: Between a Cliff and a Hard Place”
    by Menzie Chinn on October 14, 2024 at 5:10 pm

    Today we present a guest post written by Lindsay Jacobs, Assistant Professor at the Robert M. La Follette School of Public Affairs, at the University of Wisconsin, Madison.  Since 2021, Social Security retirement benefits have exceeded the revenue generated by payroll taxes. The shortfall has been covered by drawing from the Social Security Trust Fund, which

  • Recession since 2022? A Magic Asterisk-Mystery Meat-Special Sauce Approach to National Income Accounting
    by Menzie Chinn on October 12, 2024 at 7:58 pm

    In a recent paper, Antoni and St. Onge (2024) have argued that the peak in GDP, properly measured, was in 2021Q4. Source: Antoni and St. Onge (2024). Notice that real GDP is drastically below that reported in the annual update a couple weeks ago. This means the deflator they use much be much higher than

  • Nowcasts, Weekly Indicators, and Additions to the “Recession Camp”
    by Menzie Chinn on October 11, 2024 at 8:54 pm

    Nowcasts for NY and St. Louis Feds out today; St. Louis up from 1.14% to 1.73% q/q AR. NY Fed, and GS tracking unchanged at 3.2%. Figure 1: GDP (bold black), Summary of Economic Projections median iterated off of 3rd release (inverted light green triangle), GDPNow as of 10/9 (light blue square),  NY Fed nowcast

  • Why So Glum? Sentiment by Partisan Grouping
    by Menzie Chinn on October 11, 2024 at 7:15 pm

    Michigan consumer sentiment declined, below consensus (68.9 vs 70.9). Why? First, consider a text based index of economic news, compared against consumer sentiment disaggregated by partisan grouping. Figure 1: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for Democrats (blue, left scale), for Independents (gray, left scale), for Republicans (red, left scale),  Shapiro, Sudhof and Wilson (2020) Daily News Sentiment

  • Contextualizing the Inflationary Impact of the 10%/60% Trump Tariff Plan
    by Menzie Chinn on October 11, 2024 at 5:30 pm

    I was trying to think about how to contextualize the impact of the Trump 10%/60% tariffs on inflation. McKibbin-Hogan-Noland (2024) trace out the impact of this measure (as well as mass deportation) on inflation using an updated version of the G-Cubed model. In 2025, they estimate inflation will be 0.6 percentage points above baseline. Goldman-Sachs

  • Instantaneous Core Prices
    by Menzie Chinn on October 11, 2024 at 5:02 pm

    Updated to include core PPI: Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation for core CPI (blue), chained core CPI (tan), supercore CPI (pink), services supercore (light green), PPI core (red), and PCE core (green), per Eeckhout (2023), T=12, a=4. September observation based on PCE core nowcasts from Cleveland Fed as of 10/10/2024. Source: BLS, BEA, Pawel Skrzypczynski, Cleveland Fed, and author’s calculations. Instantaneous

  • CPI and CPI Core Surprise on Upside
    by Menzie Chinn on October 10, 2024 at 9:21 pm

    CPI m/m at 0.2% vs. 0.1% consensus [correction 7:15pm CT  MDC] (Core 0.3% vs. 0.2% consensus). Here are snapshots of instantaneous inflation rates for September headline, core, supercore, and services supercore CPI, headline and core PPI and HICP and headline and core PCE deflator for August. Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation for CPI (bold blue), PCE


Conversable Economist In Hume’s spirit, I will attempt to serve as an ambassador from my world of economics, and help in “finding topics of conversation fit for the entertainment of rational creatures.”

  • A Nobel for Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson: Institutions and Prosperity
    by conversableeconomist on October 14, 2024 at 7:08 pm

    The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2024 has been awarded to Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James Robinson “for studies of how institutions are formed and affect prosperity.” Each year, the Nobel Committee helpfully publishes both a “Popular information” overview of of the award and a “Scientific Background” essay that goes into greater depth. … Continue reading A Nobel for Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson: Institutions and Prosperity The post A Nobel for Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson: Institutions and Prosperity first appeared on Conversable Economist.

  • Interview with Paul Krugman: Economic Geography and Mysteries of Productivity
    by conversableeconomist on October 10, 2024 at 3:00 pm

    Cardiff Garcia of the Economic Innovation Group interviews Paul Krugman at The New Bazaar website (October 9, 2024). The interview has a number of points of interest. Here are two themes that caught my eye. The study of “economic geography” focuses on why economics activity may tend to cluster, or to spread out, or to … Continue reading Interview with Paul Krugman: Economic Geography and Mysteries of Productivity The post Interview with Paul Krugman: Economic Geography and Mysteries of Productivity first appeared on Conversable Economist.

  • Politically Homeless in the Land of Economics
    by conversableeconomist on October 9, 2024 at 2:00 pm

    There are of course a variety of reasons unrelated to economic policy to choose between Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, and other candidates running for President of the United States. But as an economist … It would be nice to vote for someone who acknowledges that the US budgets and the accumulating US debt are a … Continue reading Politically Homeless in the Land of Economics The post Politically Homeless in the Land of Economics first appeared on Conversable Economist.

  • Interview with Samuel Bowles: Inequality over the Millennia
    by conversableeconomist on October 8, 2024 at 3:30 pm

    Orley Ashenfelter interviews Samuel Bowles “on his deep interest in the causes of inequality & his work to transform economics” (“The Work Goes On” podcast, posted October 7, 2024). The entire interview is worthwhile: for example, I did not know that Bowles attended school in a tent in India when he was 11 years old … Continue reading Interview with Samuel Bowles: Inequality over the Millennia The post Interview with Samuel Bowles: Inequality over the Millennia first appeared on Conversable Economist.

  • Globalization: Coming to Grips with the Record
    by conversableeconomist on October 7, 2024 at 7:25 pm

    Back in high school, the first book I read making the arguments against global corporations and globalization was Global Reach, which had been published a few years earlier back in 1974. Since then, anti-globalization arguments have been a consistent drumbeat in the background. I remember controversies over the “Tokyo round” of world trade talks in … Continue reading Globalization: Coming to Grips with the Record The post Globalization: Coming to Grips with the Record first appeared on Conversable Economist.

  • Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: Fall 2024
    by conversableeconomist on September 30, 2024 at 7:55 pm

    Each fall and spring, the Brookings Institutions holds a conference with a set of papers from prominent economists on leading policy topics, with comments and discussion. The Fall 2024 conference happened last Thursday and Friday. You can go to the website and spend hours watching the whole thing, or you can pick and choose through … Continue reading Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: Fall 2024 The post Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: Fall 2024 first appeared on Conversable Economist.

  • The Physicality of Technology: The High Frequency Trading Example
    by conversableeconomist on September 27, 2024 at 3:00 pm

    Economists commonly think about technology as an idea, but in one way or another, the technology interacts with physical forms–and these physical forms affect how the technology is applied and its social effects. In his da Vinci Medal Address, Donald MacKenzie considers some implications of this idea in “Material Political Economy” (Technology and Culture, July … Continue reading The Physicality of Technology: The High Frequency Trading Example The post The Physicality of Technology: The High Frequency Trading Example first appeared on Conversable Economist.

  • US Drug Prices: Higher for Brand Names, Lower for Generics
    by conversableeconomist on September 25, 2024 at 3:00 pm

    Brand-name drugs in the United States cost more than in other countries. The primary reason is that the US has a sort-of-constrained but pretty free market in setting drug prices, while in other countries it is common for the government or national health service to give pharmaceutical companies what amounts to a take-it-or-leave-it offer: charge … Continue reading US Drug Prices: Higher for Brand Names, Lower for Generics The post US Drug Prices: Higher for Brand Names, Lower for Generics first appeared on Conversable Economist.

  • The Arrival of Field Experiments in Economics
    by conversableeconomist on September 23, 2024 at 5:18 pm

    When most people think of “experiments,” they think of test tubes and telescopes, of Petri dishes and Bunsen burners. But the physical apparatus is not central to what an “experiment” means. Instead, what matters is the ability to specify different conditions–and then to observe how the differences in the underlying conditions alter the outcomes. When … Continue reading The Arrival of Field Experiments in Economics The post The Arrival of Field Experiments in Economics first appeared on Conversable Economist.

  • How Can One Tell if Openness to Trade Helps Economic Growth?
    by conversableeconomist on September 18, 2024 at 7:05 pm

    The nature of globalization is clearly shifting, but it’s not clear to me that the overall level is diminishing. It does seem true the level of goods moving across international borders is rising much more slowly–or even not at all. However, the level of services being performed across international borders is rising substantially, and movements … Continue reading How Can One Tell if Openness to Trade Helps Economic Growth? The post How Can One Tell if Openness to Trade Helps Economic Growth? first appeared on Conversable Economist.